I am an Associate Professor of Social Research Methods at the London School of Economics and Political Science. From 2016-2019, I am an Associate Editor of the American Political Science Review. I am also a Senior Data Science Advisor to YouGov. My research is focused on the measurement of political preferences from survey, voting, network and text data. Applications of these methods have included citizens, legislators and judges in the US, UK and EU.

Curriculum Vitae pdf


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Recent Blog Posts


New Website

26 July 2017

The summer is a great time for catching up on research, or for frittering away time on inessential infrastructure projects. After updating my RMarkdown templates for presentations and papers, I have just spent a few days migrating my website off of Wordpress onto Hugo. Hugo is a static site generator, which means that all the content management happens on my computer, and all that gets uploaded to my site are a collection of static pages.

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I am posting the slides and audio here from a talk I gave at the LSE about the election, one day before it happened. Some things in here are right, some things in here are wrong. The polling estimates I was talking about were the penultimate estimates posted at https://today.yougov.com/us-election/ so the numbers there now are a bit different. Most of the value here post-election is the estimates of which kinds of voters were switching R to D and D to R versus 2012.

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Recent Papers

  • “Decomposing Public Opinion Variation into Ideology, Idiosyncrasy and Instability”, Journal of Politics Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste”, Journal of Politics Abstract  pdf  journal
  • “Model-Based Pre-Election Polling for National and Sub-National Outcomes in the US and UK” Abstract  pdf
  • “An assessment of the causes of the errors in the 2015 UK general election opinion polls”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Abstract  journal
  • “Submission to House of Lords Select Committee on Political Polling and Digital Media” Abstract  journal